Did he jump or was he pushed?
In his Sunday Times interview confirming his plans to quit as defence secretary in September and leave parliament at the next election, Ben Wallace said he told Rishi Sunak his plans on 16 June.
He said he’d hoped to make the announcement over the summer, when it would not have contributed to the narrative of Tory decline or looked like a response to three by-election losses expected on Thursday.
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“But someone in government briefed in the past few days that the time might be right for him to stand down,” The Sunday Times reported.
And the paper’s interviewer, chief political commentator Tim Shipman, later tweeted: “But briefings from top of government trying to make it look like it was Number 10’s idea forced his hand.”
Whatever happened behind the scenes, his confirmation that he’s going was not a surprise, for a number of reasons.
The tone of his Sunday Times interview reveals frustration, disappointment and weariness after a marathon stint in one of the most high-pressure and stressful jobs in government.
“I’ve spent well over seven years with three phones by my bed,” he told Shipman. And asked what they’re for, he replied: “Secret, secret and secret.”
Last week, at the NATO summit in Vilnius the normally sure-footed Mr Wallace made a rare gaffe when he said the UK was “not an Amazon delivery service” for weapons to Ukraine and “people want to see gratitude”.
Was that the result of fatigue brought on by the stress of the war in Ukraine? Or was he, having told Mr Sunak four weeks ago that he planned to quit, even slightly demob happy?
Almost certainly not. Mr Wallace has been thoroughly professional and one of the stand-out successes of the Tory governments of David Cameron, Theresa May, Liz Truss – briefly – and Mr Sunak.
He has regularly topped the cabinet popularity polls of Tory activists for some years and came under huge pressure to stand for the party leadership after Mr Johnson was ousted last year.
Along with Nigel Adams, who like Mr Johnson quit last month and triggered a by-election, and fellow Lancashire MP Sir Jake Berry, Mr Wallace was part of the Boris inner circle right from the beginning of Mr Johnson’s march to the top.
But he revealed in his Sunday Times interview that it was family pressure that reinforced his decision not to run for the leadership last year, even though he was the favourite for the top job among the party faithful.
At least one, but not all, of his three children (boy, girl, boy, aged between 13 and 18) urged him not to run.
“Some did and some didn’t,” he said. “It wasn’t for me. I don’t regret it at all. I want to finish this job and go back to normality.”
The big disappointment for Mr Wallace came just weeks ago when his hopes of becoming NATO secretary general were dashed.
In truth, he never stood a chance, because senior European leaders led by French President Emmanuel Macron would not accept a candidate from outside the EU. And then, to make matters worse, he was blocked by US President Joe Biden.
Then there’s the practical reason why he’s quitting parliament.
His Wyre and Preston North seat is being abolished in boundary changes, carved up and split between Preston and Ribble Valley and a new seat of Lancaster and Wyre.
The Labour MP for Lancaster and Fleetwood, Cat Smith, has already said she’ll fight the new seat. But Mr Wallace has made no attempt to contest that seat, or any other, for that matter.
With his impeccable pedigree, despite the Tories trailing badly behind Labour in the opinion polls he could have had the pick of the plum Conservative seats becoming vacant at the next election.
His tenure in government includes dealing with the Manchester Arena bombing when he was security minister, the Skripal poisoning, COVID, the withdrawal from Afghanistan and now Ukraine.
He says the continuing threat from Vladimir Putin’s Russia, an increasingly aggressive China and terrorist groups keep him awake at night.
But he says his proudest legacy is boosting defence spending and winning new money from the Treasury.
Mr Wallace is the Tories’ longest serving defence secretary, though he can’t compete with the six years of Labour giant Denis Healey, and will be a mighty hard act to follow – irrespective of whether he jumped, or was pushed out, by Number 10.