Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un both have things the other badly needs
To describe Russia and North Korea as historically close friends or particularly trusted allies would be overstating things, but at this moment in time theirs is a relationship of mutual benefit and both are unashamed in its pursuit.
Their meeting on Wednesday in Russia’s far east was loaded with symbolism and messages for the world – about the power they wield, the ambitions they have and the friends they’re willing to keep to achieve them.
The Vostochny Cosmodrome could hardly have offered a better place from which to broadcast those messages, a site that was once a launch location for Soviet ballistic missiles and now a leading space development centre and launch pad, certainly pointed to a time when the world is so worried about the missile development of North Korea and the military ambitions of Russia.
Indeed, if the symbolism didn’t quite do the trick, then Vladimir Putin was sure to hammer it home.
Asked if Russia is going to help North Korea build satellites, he said: “That’s why we’ve come to the Vostochny cosmodrome.”
Everything about this visit has been very carefully stage managed, designed to try and ensure that neither leader looks too desperate.
From the location, right on their shared border, to the timing, which coincides with the Eastern Economic Forum, when Mr Putin would have been over in the Far East anyway.
Russia’s need for ammunition
But don’t be fooled, at this moment both have things the other badly needs.
Top of the list, and indeed top of the headlines, is Mr Putin’s need for arms and ammunition to sustain his war in Ukraine. While he may not need these things immediately, his long-term stocks are depleting and he knows the war is likely to stretch on for many months, if not years.
While North Korea’s missiles and rockets are not of the most cutting-edge quality, it is at least willing to sell them in bulk, and Russia doesn’t have many other places it can turn.
Both Mr Putin and Kim Jong Un refrained from mentioning arms in their words in front of the cameras, but the fact that the defence ministers of both administrations were present strongly suggests this is the priority.
Kim is certainly being strategic, taking advantage of a moment when Russia desperately needs new friends, but he too has things he seeks.
Grain for North Korea
Remember, the North Korean economy is in dire straits after years of economic sanctions and closed borders. It is estimated that huge proportions of its population are starving and it desperately needs grain, food aid and medicine, all at a time when Russia has a grain surplus.
But the location of the meeting offers other hints about what else Kim hopes to gain from this trip.
Indeed, he is also desperate for technical know-how to help him develop some of the more advanced military capabilities he desires, from spy satellites to nuclear capable submarines.
While these are things Russia does have, even Mr Putin is likely still wary about passing on anything that would further help Kim build nuclear capability.
There are other things that are driving the two closer together too.
China’s role
A shared hatred of the West and the US in particular is crucial. Both share the ideological belief that the US behaves like a bully on the world stage and both feel existentially threatened by this behaviour; in Russia’s case via the expansion of NATO, and for the North Koreans it’s the US’ increased cooperation and military alliance with South Korea.
But their respective relationships with China are likely also playing a role.
Both, to different extents, have become increasingly reliant on their richer, more powerful neighbour. Both are the junior partners in these relationships, and both know that China holds all the cards. It is likely they feel that another ally in the region would not go amiss.
Be in no doubt, the messaging of this meeting might well be as important as the substance.
North Korea, in fact, launched two ballistic missiles just this morning, the first time it has ever done that while the leader is outside the country.
The message to its adversaries is clear: we have power, we are willing to wield it and we can be friends with whom we please.
While the Russian stance may be slightly more nuanced, it is aware of the accusations that needing to turn to such an unstable hermit kingdom is a sign of desperation.
But Mr Putin is clear-eyed and pragmatic about what North Korea is, his priority is the message that he’ll do whatever it takes to win his war in Ukraine.