Ukraine winning the war is not impossible – but it’s certainly very, very difficult
Every week we put your questions on the Ukraine war to our experts and senior correspondents.
Our latest question is from David Allen, who asked: are we kidding ourselves that Russia can ever be defeated in this war?
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Here’s what our military analyst Sean Bell had to say…
Russia’s unprovoked and illegal invasion of Ukraine has led to hundreds of thousands of casualties, communities destroyed, and cities devastated. Although Russia initially judged the invasion would last a matter of days, the support of the West has allowed Ukraine to mount a spirited and robust defence of its lands and liberate a significant proportion of the land that Russia once occupied.
In the Second World War, the allies judged the only way to bring the conflict to an end was to defeat Hitler. However, NATO and Western allies are reluctant for the current conflict to extend onto Russian soil for fear of a marked escalation, perhaps even a nuclear confrontation. As a result, although Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s public aim is to remove all Russian soldiers from Ukrainian lands, most Western analysts believe it would be very difficult for Ukraine to liberate Crimea and the eastern side of the Donbas.
Not impossible – but very, very difficult.
Since it is also unlikely that Russia will prevail and subjugate the whole of Ukraine, neither side is likely to be able to deliver a decisive blow against the other. Battlefield victory and defeat therefore have limited meaning in this conflict.
However, from a grand-strategic perspective, it is worth reviewing what outcomes Vladimir Putin was seeking to achieve from his invasion of Ukraine to judge whether any outcome might be considered a success or failure.
Mr Putin has made clear he wanted to halt the expansion of NATO, yet his invasion has led directly to Finland and Sweden opting to join. Mr Putin also wanted to “make Russia great” again – yet one only has to watch the changed dynamics of his relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping to recognise that Mr Putin is now subservient where once he was an equal. Mr Putin also wanted to grow the Russian economy, yet because of Western sanctions, quite the opposite has occurred.
As a result, most Western leaders believe that Russia has already been defeated, as his ambitions for the conflict will not be realised and Russia will emerge at the war’s end a pariah state.
However, Mr Putin will understand that some form of victory will be required to placate his domestic audience and justify the sacrifices made. That is probably why Mr Putin has always referred to the conflict as a special military operation – deliberately ill-defined – so that when he judges the time is right, he can negotiate a peace and declare victory – albeit the world will recognise it will be a pyrrhic victory.